So You Think You Have Troubles? Northern Ireland and Brexit

A talk given to Salisbury for Europe members on 21 May 2018 by our Vice Chair, Gerry Lynch. Gerry was Executive Director of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 2007-10 and as a student office administrator to the Alliance talks team in 1998, was the youngest person in the room when the Good Friday Agreement was signed.

Smart Borders. Max fac. Automatic gates. Electronic preclearance.

The discussion on the Northern Ireland border involves more incomprehensible jargon than an American football match, much of it churned out by people who seem to know very little about how actual borders work either in Ireland or in America.

I’m going to do my best to cut through some of the hysteria and frank nonsense that is emanating issues around the border between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland – and I think it’s important that at the beginning, at least, we start by framing the issue in those terms.

If we talk about this issue as ‘the Irish border problem’, then we’re framing this as a purely Irish problem, and allowing Britons to psychologically distance themselves from them. But it is the decision by the people of the United Kingdom to upend what had been a settled status quo by opting to leave the European Union that seems certain to create a problem on the Irish border.

And of, course, around half the population of Northern Ireland consider themselves British and very proud to be so, as every political party on both islands has agreed is their right and an entirely honourable position.

I say I would try to cut through the hysteria and nonsense around this issue because giving you a clear picture on the likely course of events would require some clarity on behalf of the UK government. As on so much else, this is not forthcoming, because the government itself seems to be bitterly divided on the way forward.

There are, however, three principles which the government says are inviolable in any post-Brexit arrangements between the UK and the EU:

1. No hard border in Ireland.
2. No customs controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
3. The UK will leave both the Single Market and the Customs Union.

The problem is that it is simply not possible to deliver all three of these objectives. It is possible to deliver any two of them together. But not all three. And I genuinely don’t know which of the three the government will decide to let slip once a hard choice needs to be made, and that is a decision that will have to be made very soon.

We’ll explore some of the ideas being presented by Brexiteers as solutions to the border problem in due course. But before that, let’s explore some basic facts about Northern Ireland.

Packed Salisbury Meeting Hears Brexit May Not Happen

A leading British philosopher and campaigner against Brexit has told a meeting attended by two hundred people at Salisbury Arts Centre that Brexit is unlikely to happen – as long as those opposed to it

Professor AC Grayling addressed the sold-out meeting organised by local pro-Europe group Salisbury for Europe on Thursday evening, 11 January, the same day that Nigel Farage indicated his unlikely support for a second referendum on British membership of the EU.

Professor Grayling said:

“The Brexit decision is reversible. The government is dependent on the DUP for a very narrow majority, and while ten Labour MPs are Brexiteers, there are at least thirty-five Conservative MPs who are staunch Remainers, along with most of the House of Lords.

“In the country public opinion is turning against the result, evidenced by recent major polls, which MPs will be taking note. Business is also worried about Brexit, especially those who export to Europe.”

Guy Wilkinson, Chair of Salisbury for Europe, commented after the meeting:

“This packed public meeting, which also helped raise significant funds for Salisbury for Europe, and saw our membership list rise to nearly 1,100, much larger than any local political party.

“Among things that people can do to make a difference are to write to our local MP; to ask our councillors to find out the likely impact of Brexit on Wiltshire Council; and keep informed with the issues to discuss them with friends and on social media.

“We hold monthly stalls in Salisbury market, and noticed a real shift in mood in the second half of 2017. We think 2018 will be a year of real change in opinion on Brexit, in Salisbury and around the country.”

Photos: Carlton Brunton/bruntonmedia.com.

Top Professor to Address Salisbury for Europe AGM and Public Meeting

A leading professor of international politics is to address the AGM of pro-Remain group Salisbury for Europe next month.

Professor Brad Blitz, Professor of International Politics at Middlesex University Business School, will speak at the event on Wednesday 10 May at 7.30pm in the SP2 Community Centre at St Paul’s Roundabout.

Professor Blitz will speak on the likely shape of politics, in the UK and internationally, during the upcoming two years of Brexit negotiations leading to the vote in parliament on any UK-EU agreement.

At the AGM, members will adopt the constitution of Salisbury for Europe and elect a new Executive Committee from their 800 members.

Professor Brad Blitz said:

“I am excited to be addressing the AGM of Salisbury for Europe at such a critical time in the history of Britain and the world.

“The decisions made in the next two years will shape this country and continent for decades to come. I hope this members of the public with continue to inform themselves on the real issues at stake in negotiations.”

Guy Wilkinson, Chair of Salisbury for Europe said:

“We are privileged to have such an eminent speaker address our AGM. Professor Blitz is widely regarded as a leading expert on post conflict integration, migration, development and human rights.

“He has acted as an advisor and consultant to the British government, overseas governments and international organisations including the UN.

“This is a wonderful opportunity for local people to learn more about the difficult issues we face as a country that lie behind the excitable national press headlines.”

About Professor Brad Blitz

Professor Brad K Blitz received his PhD in International Development and Education from Stanford University. In April 2013 he took up the post of Deputy Dean and Professor of International Politics in the Middlesex University Law School. He studied in Belgium, France, Russia, the USA and UK.

He has acted as an advisor and consultant to many international organisations including the United Nations, the World Bank, the Council of Europe; and also to the British Government as well as the Russian and Albanian governments. He has appeared as an expert witness is courts in the UK and Australia.

He is the author of Migration and Freedom: Mobility, Citizenship and Exclusion, over 40 academic articles and has also published in The Economist, Guardian, International Herald Tribune, New York Times, Oregonian, Times, Times Higher Education Supplement, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, World Today.

Taking Control or Out of Control?

It was back to the future at Lancaster House, an ancient site of British diplomatic class, where the EU27 Ambassadors had been summoned to hear an outline of the proposed British approach to exit negotiations.

In strides the Prime Minister, like The Joker from Batman. Kapow! Take that you continentals! We’re going out – all the way out. The Single Market, the very thing that Margaret Thatcher thought it was worth staying in Europe to deliver? Nah, we don’t need that.

But we’re sure you’ll let us cherry pick all the bits of it we like, at a cut down price, with minimal fuss. Otherwise, we’ll think seriously about how our police co-operate and you do remember we have effective armed forces that you might need now you can’t rely on the Americans to defend you from Putin?

Really? If we don’t get what we want, we’ll risk our own national security and make life easier for criminals in spite?

Even Philip Hammond, usually the centre of calm reason in a fractious Cabinet, was dispatched to the German press at the weekend to threaten to turn the UK into a tax-haven and low-regulation sweatshop – the rights of British workers be damned, if needs be.

This was certainly a moment for the PM to show some backbone, whatever your views on Brexit, but the tone-deaf execution was extraordinary.

What was effectively her opening statement for the most complex divorce talks in history was pitched not at the diplomatic corps assembled before her or their home governments, but for a Fleet Street press corps looking for jingoistic clickbait. The press, of course, obliged. Even, say, The Times ran the front page headline “May to EU: give us fair deal or you’ll be crushed” alongside a full length photo of the PM looking particularly macho.

The problem is that threatening to ‘crush’ people only works when people think you have the capacity to crush them. As German backbench politicians were quick to note, the UK has a trade deficit, a budget deficit, and relatively high national debt. We simply can’t afford to walk over the cliff edge with a slash and burn approach to our economy.

The central fact of the negotiations remains that 45% of UK exports go to the EU27. Around 10% of EU27 exports go to the UK. If the UK walks out the door with no deal, the EU has alternative markets through the Free Trade Agreements it has with 90 countries. The UK has to start from scratch.

Rapid agreements with Australia and New Zealand? Maybe, but we forget how sparsely populated those countries are, with a combined population not much more than half of Poland’s. Geography and time zone differences do restrict their potential importance as markets for the UK, especially when their large neighbours are all low cost economies. They’re also diverse and proud countries where even people of Anglo-Scottish descent don’t necessarily have any misty eyed nostalgia for the British Empire, something which also seems to escape the press here. Woe betide the Australian politician who offered the Poms a soft deal because they’d got themselves in to a mess.

Given the weakness of the political forces opposing the government, the willingness to risk goodwill and real negotiating capital for headlines showed a remarkably disordered set of priorities and an extraordinary political vanity.

And who can stop this all going out of control? Us – you and I and people like us. There is nobody else who is going to save us. If you want to save your country from the biggest national mistake since Lloyd George capitulated to Clemenceau at Versailles, you and I and ordinary people like us are going to have to step up and work for it.

Science, Environment and Brexit Top Bill at Public Meeting

A pro-European group in Salisbury has organised a second public meeting to examine the impact of the Brexit vote on Britain’s future.

Salisbury for Europe is organising the event called Brexit in close-up at Salisbury Methodist Church at 7 pm on Thursday 2 February. The event will look at the impact Brexit is likely to have on science, the environment, and citizens of other EU countries resident in the UK.

The speakers will be Taudeusz Stenzel, President of the Federation of Poles in GB, Ella Curnow of the UK Environmental Law Association and Dr Rob Davidson of scientists for Europe. The event will provide a forum for local people, whatever their views, to listen to speakers with experience in some of the areas that would be most affected by Brexit, and to join in the discussion themselves.

Guy Wilkinson, Chair of Salisbury for Europe, said:

“Scientists and people working in the environmental area gave strong warnings before the Referendum that exiting the EU could cause serious damage in areas where the UK has been a world leader.

“Since the Referendum, EU citizens living in this country, many working in vital jobs in our public services, have been denied assurances by the government that they can continue to live in a country to which they have contributed so much.

“The world also looks a more uncertain place than it did when the vote to Leave took place in June, with instability scattered across the globe and a new administration, which worries many of us, set to take power in the USA.

“All are welcome whether they are supporters of Remain, Leave or are uncertain. We need more opportunities for ordinary people to have grown up conversations with one another away from the national media circus.”

Street Stall, 10 December

Thanks to the volunteers who manned our city centre street stall on Saturday morning – coinciding with International Human Rights Day.

It was very successful and enjoyable with a whole range of conversations, and 45 new signups to our mailing list, which means we have gone over the 750 mark.

Letter in the Salisbury Journal

A letter from a member of our steering group in the 17 November Salisbury Journal:

COUNCILLOR Richard Clewer writes of his being “concerned” at the very existence of ‘Salisbury for Europe’, a group that he characterises as being somehow inherently part of the “political establishment liberal left”.

Salisbury for Europe is actually a very diverse group, and amongst its many hundreds of supporters are representatives from all the main political parties (and none).

The people have, indeed, spoken.

But Mr Clewer is wrong to describe a mere 37 per cent of registered electors as representing “the majority of the public”.

Indeed, the most prominent Leave campaigner did state, prior to the result, that a 52/48 result would be “unfinished business”.

Meanwhile, many of those who will be most affected by our current course were actually denied a vote, including millions of British nationals who live abroad and also young people (who were entrusted to help determine the future of Scotland but, bizarrely, not the future of the United Kingdom).

Never before in our democracy have those on the losing side of a vote been ordered to cease expressing their opinions.

Indeed, this year’s referendum only happened because those who were on the losing side of the 1975 referendum continued to campaign to have that decision reversed, which was their absolute and democratic right.

If Mr Clewer were to politely engage with us, he would discover that, far from “sneering” and displaying the “worst kind of arrogance”, Salisbury for Europe represents the wholly legitimate concerns of hard working people, worried nationals of other EU countries (including NHS staff), and people who have suffered hate attacks on the streets of Salisbury in this dangerous and febrile post-referendum atmosphere.

John Pheby Salisbury

Bristol Meeting, Women’s Rights and Brexit

Clare Moody, one of our MEPs in the South West, and the European Socialist Party (PES) are sponsoring an event on Saturday 10 December aimed at informing women about the current benefits of our EU membership and the rights we need to protect in the Brexit negotiations.

Clare is looking forward to being joined by other Labour representatives, Trade Union colleagues, academics and professionals who specialise in gender equality to discuss these crucial issues as they plan a campaign to ensure that we hold on to the rights that we cherish.

The event will take place from 10.30 am until 4 pm at the Novotel in Bristol City Centre’s Victoria Street (BS1 6HY). It is very important that you RSVP to clare@claremoodymep.com by Monday 21 November if you would like to attend. They have had to move a larger venue to accommodate all those wishing to attend.

This is quite a distance from South Wilts at a busy time of the year: Clare says that if you are unable to come but would like to be involved in the campaign please drop her an email.

First Market Place Stall Since June A Success

We had a great reception on Saturday for our first market place stall since the referendum.

The weather was wet and rather cold which made for an inauspicious start, but we had a good range of conversations with a variety of people, the majority of them English, but also including Hungarian, Bulgarian and Spanish people. We added 20 new names to our mailing list which is now well over 700.

Our impression was that the public mood is much more balanced than it was during the Referendum campaign, with no aggression, and some people who voted Leave keen to have intelligent discussions about where we might go from here.

We’ll be back out again in December!

MEDIA RELEASE: Successful Salisbury Meeting Opposes ‘Hard Brexit

More than a hundred people attended a public meeting in Salisbury named Fighting Hard Brexit on Friday night.

The meeting, which took place at Salisbury Methodist Church, was organised by Salisbury for Europe, a grassroots group of local people campaigning to ensure the UK maintains as many of the advantages of EU membership as it can, and if possible, to overturn Brexit.

The speakers at the meeting were local Labour MEP Claire Moody, Liberal Democrat Prospective Parliamentary Candidate Paul Sample, and the Green Party’s Emily McIvor, an expert on EU animal welfare law. Messages of support were read from Neil Carmichael MP, Chairman of the Conservative Group for Europe and ‘Unionists’ a group of pro-European grassroots Conservative activists.

Guy Wilkinson, Convenor of Salisbury for Europe, said:

“Many leading Leave campaigners said before the vote that they would like to see a deal with the EU on the lines of the relationships held by Norway or Switzerland, which include free trade and the free movement of people. Despite a narrow majority in the referendum, we now seem to be heading for a hard Brexit that will cost jobs and damage lives. We see no evidence that is what the British people voted for.

“Great concern was expressed by members of the audience about the spike in xenophobic attacks, which have included some violent incidents here in Salisbury.

“We also heard impassioned pleas from EU nationals who have lived here for decades, working in vital jobs, including the NHS, and contributing tens of thousands of pounds in taxes, who have been given no security about their future in the UK. They deserve better, as do British citizens who have made their lives in other EU countries.

“One issue repeatedly raised was the need for proper parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit proposals. The slogan of the Leave side in the referendum was ‘take back control’, yet the government seems to want to do deals behind closed doors with ordinary people shut out.

“We now need to write to our MPs to make our voices heard, and campaign to show the many people who now wonder if their vote for Brexit was really a good idea that there is an alternative.”

ENDS

PHOTO: the photo attached shows people who attended the meeting supporting The Three Million campaign, which supports the right of EU citizens to remain in the UK after Brexit.